Assad, his military and supporters on the run

The Russian ambassador’s recent statement in Paris deserves only derision. He said Bashar Assad is ready to step down in a “civilized” manner despite the savagery his forces have been committing. While Assad confided to the ambassador his willingness to abandon power, thousands of his supporters were fleeing across the borders to Lebanon because they fear reprisal after their leader’s fall. It is amazing to watch how fast the tables are turning these days. Syrian citizens were fleeing the country terrified and shocked by the barbaric attacks of Assad’s forces until recently, but now the Assad supporters are in full flight mode. According to some Israeli reports the Syrian soldiers manning the Golan Heights have left their posts and are heading for Damascus. This has happened for the first time over the past 40 years. However, the Golan front is quiet as it has always been in the past decades. Now Israeli forces have nothing to do but watch through their viewing glasses to see if anything is happening at the borders. Hezbollah, Iran’s pawn, has also moved its militias from the Israeli border to the Syrian front. It is anticipating a showdown with an unfriendly future Syrian government to succeed Assad’s regime. According to a private source, Hezbollah is currently digging tunnels under the rough terrain across the borders with Syria. The militia has also moved its rocket-launching pads and heavy artilleries from the Israeli front to hilly locations, especially El-Hermel that overlooks the plains near the Syrian borders. The militia is no longer worried about Israel these days. The present battle is focused on the control of Damascus, the capital that may change the course of history in the eastern side of the Arab world. The fall of the Syrian regime is almost certain. But the contours of the next Syrian government remain indistinct. The wind may blow in any direction after the fall of three of the most reprehensible regimes in the contemporary Arab world – Saddam’s Iraq, Qaddafi’s Libya and Assad’s Syria. With changes in the direction of the wind, new alliances and enmities will, no doubt, emerge. Iran has been viewing Israel as an enemy and competitor since the 1980s. It also believed that Israel is the only obstacle in achieving its ambition to expand its influence in the Arab world. So, Iran’s policies always revolved around a strong alliance with Syria and exploiting Hezbollah for this goal even after the exit of Israel from all occupied territories in Lebanon except the Shabaa Farms. Syria has disputed Lebanon’s authority over Shabaa before the Israeli occupation and made its claim based on its support for Hezbollah’s presence in that border area. Syria also refused to acknowledge in the United Nations that Shabaa belonged to Lebanon. Iran has put up several proxies in the region under the guise of revolutionary and Islamic groups with the aim of mounting pressure on Israel and the United States to recognize its influence in the region. In fact, the liberation of Palestine is just a slogan adopted by Iran to increase its influence in the region. Assad, and in the past Saddam, Qaddafi and some others exploited the slogan for their individual political gains. A pertinent question now is, will the pillars of the Assad camp, which has been called the Assad front for resistance, collapse after the regime’s downfall? Those pillars are no longer functioning. Hezbollah will remain a silent supporter of Israel and Lebanon will close its front with it for good. Hezbollah may open partly its battlefront against the next Syrian government. However, I don’t think that Hezbollah will enter in a war against Damascus unless separatist-allied groups such as the Alawites launch a civil war. The Palestinian issue is not a regional one, but an unending issue of occupation. The fronts of struggle for its liberation will change according to the change in alliances. However, Palestine will remain the central issue around which a number of other issues will revolve, including the game of musical chairs for power in the region. --- The views expressed by the author do not necessarily represent or reflect the editorial policy of Arabstoday.