Germany, Europe and the world must learn to live without ‘Mutti’

Like other European leaders, Angela Merkel is making final preparations to mark the centenary on Nov. 11 of the end of the First World War. Unlike them, however, for Merkel this historic moment has been juxtaposed with another political milestone — her announcement that her fourth term as German chancellor will be her last.

This is important not just for German domestic politics, but also for Europe and the world at large. After almost a decade and a half in office, the leader Germans affectionately call “Mutti” (or “Mommy”) has become for many the embodiment of a western liberal order that is currently under significant stress. She has not just been the most important political leader in continental Europe in the past decade, but in the era of Donald Trump she also has claimed to being the most influential leader in the Western world, not least as the longest-serving G7 and EU national leader.

Three US presidents (Bush, Obama and Trump), four French presidents (Chirac, Sarkozy, Hollande and Macron) and the same number of UK prime ministers (Blair, Brown, Cameron and May) have come and (mostly) gone during Merkel’s tenure as the first female German chancellor. In office since 2005, Merkel has also broken Margaret Thatcher’s record as Europe’s longest-serving female leader, at 11 years.

Should she serve a full fourth term to 2021, she would match Helmut Kohl’s 16 years in office from 1982 to 1998 and surpass Konrad Adenauer’s service from 1949 to 1963. Indeed, a full fourth term would place Merkel behind only Otto von Bismarck, who served for almost two decades from 1871–90.

During a rollercoaster 13 years, Merkel has helped shape Europe’s response to the trauma of the 2008 financial crash and subsequent eurozone crises; the “Arab Spring” and the migration challenges it presented Europe; and Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and annexation of Crimea. Her relative political weakness now therefore threatens a power vacuum as the EU seeks to finalize Brexit, tackles a significant migration challenge and faces the real possibility of populist parties making striking gains in next year’s European Parliament elections.

A key question now is therefore whether Merkel will serve a full fourth term, or fall from office before 2021. The latter could become inevitable if her coalition splinters, triggering elections in 2019.

Of all Europe’s leaders, it is perhaps fellow moderate Macron who will miss her most. Like Merkel, he has been outward-focused and visited 27 countries in the first year of his term, spending 68 days outside France, 10 more than Hollande and 14 more than Sarkozy.

At the European level, Merkel has been an ally of the French president with his proposed reforms to the EU. This includes his plans to reform the eurozone, which now look less likely to materialize, in full form at least. 

Merkel has also been a friend to Macron at the global level in seeking to tame what many in Western Europe and much of the rest of the world see as the wilder impulses of Donald Trump over issues such as economic tariffs and trade wars, through to climate change. In April, for instance, Macron and Merkel had separate trips within days to the White House to lobby Trump on these and other matters, including the Iran nuclear deal.

While Macron has formed a relationship with Trump that sometimes seems to border on a bromance, the dissonance between Merkel and the US president is clear. The personal factor is important, with the chancellor’s style and values colliding with those of Trump; this was underlined in March 2017 when he appeared to refuse to shake her hand at a press conference, and the two did not speak for over five months up to March 2018. In this context, the symbolism of her leaving office will be striking, especially if Trump were to win re-election in 2020. 

Merkel has become a weaker figure on the global stage, and could yet fall from power in 2019. But she remains one of Europe’s political big beasts and her influence on key international decisions, from Ukraine to reform of the EU, will continue to be felt while she remains in office, possibly until 2021.

From :Arabnews