Don’t be fooled by Khamenei’s Machiavellian speech

For nearly three decades, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has delivered speeches for Nowruz, the Iranian New Year.

This year, Khamenei’s speech was slightly different. It highlighted several crucial issues and contained some Machiavellian tactical shifts.

First of all, a large part of Khamenei’s speech focused on the nation’s economy. Khamenei repeated his underlying modus operandi, which is dodging responsibility by throwing the blame on the “government,” aka the president and his team.

Iran’s unemployment and inflation rates are at record highs, which can be a perilous source of unrest ahead of the presidential elections in early May. That is why Khamenei is attempting to show the people that he is their supporter, a sympathizer; that he is on the side of the people and against the “government.”

Khamenei stressed that “I and people” demand a better economy from the officials. 

“I call the New Year a year of resistance economy, production and employment… The economy of resistance is a general term which is accompanied by production and employment. These are the sectors that everyone should focus on. I and the people demand that the dear and honorable officials focus on these two sectors, carry out tasks with planning and report the results to the people at the end of the year, God willing,” he said, according to Iran’s Tasnim News Agency. “The government has taken positive steps but they do not meet people’s expectations and mine.”

The idea that Khamenei is with the people and against the government is totally absurd. The government and Khamenei are not two distinct entities; Khamenei is the government. He is the final decision-maker in Iran’s domestic and foreign policy. There is no critical policy or law that passes without the blessing, order or approval of Khamenei. He manages the economy and holds the nation’s wealth and natural resources. He, his family members, his gilded circle, and the senior cadre of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are among the wealthiest people in Iran. Khamenei is the richest man in the world, controlling a financial empire worth at least $10 billion more than Bill Gates’ fortune, according to some reports.

Another intriguing issue is that Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani, and the so-called moderate camp, are more than willing to play Khamenei’s game. This is the classic bad cop, good cop routine; they feed off each other. But when it comes to the economy, the real victims are the poor people who are being played by the moderates and the hard-liners.

What Khamenei left out is critical

On the other hand, while many media focused on Khamenei’s sympathetic view toward the people’s economic hardship, they failed to observe that it was what Khamenei left out of his speech that was more critical.

Every year, Khamenei uses the Nowruz speech to lash out at the US and the West. Last year he mocked then-President Barack Obama, even though Obama pursued an unprecedented appeasement toward Iran, which gave Tehran critical relief from sanctions, global legitimacy, allowed it to rejoin the global financial market, and provided billions of dollars in additional revenues.

Surprisingly, this year Khamenei did not even mention the US, the so-called “Great Satan.” This is because Khamenei is again, tactically and masterfully, attempting not to draw renewed pressure from Washington.

Ironically, whenever Khamenei feels that the American administration might take a robust stance against Iran’s aggressions, he tones down his rhetoric. On the other hand, whenever the US uses appeasement policies, Khamenei ratchets up his anti-American rhetoric or attacks against other countries in the region. From Khamenei’s perspective, President Trump might be sensitive and might react to anti-American rhetoric. As a result, for Khamenei it is crucial to temporarily tone it down until Trump is out of the White House.

Nevertheless, policymakers should not be tricked by Khamenei’s tactical shift. Iran’s real policies — including militaristic and expansionist schemes, interventions in the domestic affairs of other nations, the pursuit of regional hegemonic ambitions, violation of international laws, the rapidly advancing ballistic missile program, and anti-Americanism — have all been strengthened since January 2017.