Stresses extremism harms economy

Tunisian expert Ahmed Mansour said Tunisia’s current “unprecedented and catastrophic” economic crisis has been mainly caused by the radical Islam ideologies.
In an interview with Arab Today, Mansour pointed out that that rampant unemployment, especially among the young, endangers social peace and political achievements that have been accomplished in the past four years.
Official unemployment climbed to 15.2 percent, compared with 13 percent before the revolt, with youth joblessness running at about 40 percent, according to the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.
He added that the GDP exceeded 50 percent after it was only 39 percent in January 2014, which represent a challenge to the current government and a burden on the state budget.
Tunisian leaders fear that rampant unemployment, especially among the young, endangers social peace.  A growing disparity between the wealthier towns of the Mediterranean coast and impoverished communities in the interior feeds political and social alienation in the landlocked west and south. Corrupt monopolies built during decades of authoritarian rule still enrich the powerful, afflict the weak, and stifle the economy.
He added that the country’s poorest regions, meanwhile, are home to most of the estimated 3,000 Tunisians who have joined violent extremist groups, stressing the tie between extremism and lack of economic opportunity.
Tunisia is known for its fertile soil. It is also one of the largest exporters of olive oil and dates, with an estimated 300,000 metric tons of olive oil and 100,000 metric tons of date, Mansour said, adding that it is believed that this massive agricultural production has “saved Tunisia’s economy from a catastrophic crisis.”
Prior to 2011 real GDP growth was averaging 4-5% a year,  “not very impressive” given the high growth rate of the labour force and compared to for example Turkey, but nonetheless fairly robust and stable growth, he said.
However, during the 2011 revolution GDP drop in around 2% and after initially recovering in 2011-12 growth have once against slowed significantly and as a consequence the level of real GDP today is more or less unchanged compared to early 2011.
It is hard not to see the latest social unrest and demonstrations in the light of this lackluster economic performance.
Despite the difficulties, Mansour said he remained optimistic. Any growth in the face of the headwinds Tunisia is battling signals economic strength to build on, he said. The IMF, in announcing an approval for a $301.6 million disbursement to Tunisia as part of a two year macro-economic assistance plan, said on Sept. 30, that Tunisia’s economy had been “resilient” considering the political transition and the international environment. Structural reforms, however, remained “challenging.”