Israel will start the next Gulf war

In Tel Aviv, Israelis are calculating the costs of the attack on the Iranian nuclear facilities if they must go for this adventure alone. They said they received a commitment from the Americans to finance their air defense system, “The Iron Dome,” costing more than $ 200 million. Each Battery costs $ 50 million and each intercepting rocket cost $ 40,000. The Iron Dome is supposed to protect Israel from possible rocket assaults by Iran and others. What is more important than the procurement bill is the statement by the Israeli chief of staff who assured that Israel can strike any Iranian nuclear installation on its own. He meant to warn Iranians and Americans as well especially after the recent negotiations over Iranian nuclear program failed. Iran is still continuing its work on the nuclear project. We heard Alaeddin Boroujerdi, chairman of the Iranian Shoura Council’s Committee for Foreign Policy and National Security, saying, “We won’t get tired from the negotiations. We are sure talks will end up with Westerners accepting Iran as a nuclear country.” Israel is warning the US that negotiations already took a long time for nothing. They are afraid it won’t take longer until the Iranians obtain a weapon of mass destruction, which will then make any military engagement with Iran impossible. The question is: Should we worry about any Iranian-Israeli conflict? The answer is yes. Any attack on Iranian nuclear facilities will provoke Iranians to open their fire at anyone in between including the US bases in the Gulf and the Gulf states. We will only know about such a war through the TV. The Israelis will start a war that will last longer than what their Defense Ministry plans. It will be bigger than any war in the region. Of course, this was one probability. The other one is that Israel’s attack can be more than what the Iranians can handle and their nuclear project will be history. Although, this is the least probability, we cannot rely on this. All the wars that we knew had devastating complications. They lasted longer than what their starters estimated. The world cannot wake up with a nuclear Iran. We know very well Iranians won’t hesitate to threaten the Gulf states and the world. The problem is not in the nuclear weapon itself. In 1998, Pakistan did five nuclear explosions to prove its possession of nuclear weapons. But they never posed any threat to anyone. Their motivation for their weapons development was to achieve a balance of power against India. Iran, on the other hand, is like North Korea. Nobody can predict its behavior whether it will use the weapon against Saudi Arabia, Israel or Europe. Even if Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran, doesn’t press the nuclear weapon button, Iran will keep blackmailing its neighbors. They will impose directives to other countries in the region starting from Bahrain. Countries of the region won’t be able to ask for foreign intervention in case Iran assaults using conventional weapons because the weapon of mass destruction is a deterrent. Israelis know their nuclear arsenal can destroy Iran in case the latter makes any nuclear assault. But is this kind of balance valid against states with rational leaderships. We can never predict Tehran’s behavior, because of its record of financing terrorism and fueling conflicts. Even presidential candidate Esfandyar Rahim Mashaei — although he is preferred by the Gulf countries and Westerners more than the other politicians — is fanatic for the “Mahdi return” and believes in the sacrifice in order to ease his return. How can we trust a nuclear Iran then? The views expressed by the author do not necessarily represent or reflect the editorial policy of Arabstoday.