is the collapse of the iranian regime better for us
Last Updated : GMT 09:07:40
Egypt Today, egypt today
Egypt Today, egypt today
Last Updated : GMT 09:07:40
Egypt Today, egypt today

Is the collapse of the Iranian regime better for us?

Egypt Today, egypt today

is the collapse of the iranian regime better for us

Abdul Rahman Al-Rashid

To start with, it should not be understood from this analysis that the Iranian regime is crumbling and about to collapse. The truth is that the regime in Tehran is strong in its structures and apparatus, and it represents a strong sector that cannot be easily removed by demonstrations. However, the importance of the current popular dynamic in Iran, which took us by surprise again as it did in 2009, is that it could be a conducive factor leading to partial or total change in the future.
But before discussing the implications of the popular dynamic on our region, we must discuss its effects on Iran and its regime which would of course affect us. There are many possibilities. First, that the security forces will be able to suppress the demonstrations as they did eight years ago, without hesitating to kill unarmed protesters in front of mobile cameras. Second, that the regime will offer some concessions to absorb the crisis, such as dismissing President Hassan Rouhani and his government while continuing to suppress the uprising. The third possibility is that the demonstrations might become larger and more violent, benefiting from disputes between internal forces in the regime — such as the dispute between the Revolutionary Guards and the regular army over which will dominate the system. The fourth possibility, which is quite unlikely, would be the total collapse of the regime, turning the situation in Iran into one similar to those in Libya and Syria.
Overall, the disturbances in Tehran have been painful and have shaken the confidence in the regime of most Iranians and the outside world. Therefore, the regime is obliged to reconsider its position even if it manages to quell the demonstrations in the next few days. The recent speech by President Rouhani indicated that the government had to listen to its people. However, in case the third or fourth possibilities occur, there would be serious internal and regional consequences arising from the collapse of the regime.
As far as we — and I mean the states in the region — are concerned, the ideal situation would be the continuation of the present regime but with a change in its foreign policies and an end to its hostile projects. This view may seem strange, but the justification is that the region is already suffering from a great deal of destruction and cannot afford new chaos, additional civil wars, and many more refugees. But if the popular Iranian uprising succeeds in changing Iranian foreign policies and ending its foreign operations, and forces the regime to focus instead on internal reform and development, this would be the ideal option compared with the frightening scenario if the regime were to collapse.
The defect of this hypothesis is that the nature of the Iranian regime is not civil and, hence, is incapable of changing itself. Rather, the regime is theological and relies on force. In other words, it is a fascist theological regime. Therefore, it would be quite hard for it to reform its thoughts and views of the world. This is a question the supreme leadership of Iran, which must be in permanent session due to the dangerous developments, needs to discuss.
Should the regime weather the crisis and benefit from its lessons, it may survive. However, if it insists on confronting the demonstrators with bullets, and possibly with scapegoats to satisfy the angry crowds, more popular explosions cannot be ruled out in the future. The leaders of the Revolutionary Guards, together with the supreme theological leadership, are apparently arrogant. They think that they can expand the republic and make it a regional empire, geographically occupying some regional states, competing with international powers and threatening their interests in the Middle East, seeking to besiege Saudi Arabia and threaten Israel, and fighting multiple simultaneous wars. This is the way arrogant people think, ignoring the limits of Iranian power in a country whose people are suffering, and which is considered to have one of the poorest regional economies.

 

Name *

E-mail *

Comment Title*

Comment *

: Characters Left

Mandatory *

Terms of use

Publishing Terms: Not to offend the author, or to persons or sanctities or attacking religions or divine self. And stay away from sectarian and racial incitement and insults.

I agree with the Terms of Use

Security Code*

is the collapse of the iranian regime better for us is the collapse of the iranian regime better for us



GMT 18:35 2018 Friday ,14 December

Can Armenia break the ice with Turkey?

GMT 21:25 2018 Thursday ,13 December

PM limps on with UK still in Brexit gridlock

GMT 21:21 2018 Thursday ,13 December

US begins crackdown on Iran sanctions violations

GMT 14:33 2018 Wednesday ,12 December

Political turbulence likely to continue unabated in 2019

GMT 14:26 2018 Wednesday ,12 December

Canada standing on the wrong side of history

GMT 13:27 2018 Tuesday ,11 December

France and the crisis of democracy

GMT 17:25 2017 Saturday ,11 March

Trial of 20 elements of Daesh-affiliated

GMT 09:29 2017 Thursday ,10 August

Mai Seleim is happy for reactions to new album

GMT 10:23 2017 Sunday ,26 November

HRH Crown Prince attends Abu Dhabi F1 Grand Prix 2017

GMT 18:14 2012 Thursday ,19 April

Dog

GMT 07:48 2018 Friday ,19 January

Pope focuses on migrants at final Chile mass

GMT 09:56 2017 Monday ,28 August

Vatican expresses solidarity with Muslim minority

GMT 20:19 2017 Thursday ,03 August

Indonesia Jails Man who Grew Marijuana

GMT 07:31 2017 Tuesday ,26 September

Whale carcass dug up from Australian

GMT 07:42 2017 Wednesday ,06 December

Mohamed Saad close to end filming “The Treasure”

GMT 08:17 2011 Friday ,26 August

SK Telecom solicits Samsung

GMT 14:06 2011 Friday ,05 August

Springbok \'crocks\' recalled for Tri-Nations

GMT 06:29 2012 Wednesday ,07 November

BMW Group achieves strong third quarter

GMT 17:50 2016 Thursday ,27 October

Tata in race against time to save its global image
 
 Egypt Today Facebook,egypt today facebook  Egypt Today Twitter,egypt today twitter Egypt Today Rss,egypt today rss  Egypt Today Youtube,egypt today youtube  Egypt Today Youtube,egypt today youtube

Maintained and developed by Arabs Today Group SAL.
All rights reserved to Arab Today Media Group 2025 ©

Maintained and developed by Arabs Today Group SAL.
All rights reserved to Arab Today Media Group 2025 ©

egypttoday egypttoday egypttoday egypttoday
egypttoday egypttoday egypttoday
egypttoday
بناية النخيل - رأس النبع _ خلف السفارة الفرنسية _بيروت - لبنان
egypttoday, Egypttoday, Egypttoday