Syria cease-fire won’t work

John F. Kerry’s new cease-fire in Syria, launched this week after negotiations with Russia, is an admirable effort to bring a measure of peace to a shattered land. But it’s almost certainly doomed to fail — despite the diligence and even passion the secretary of State has devoted to it, Los Angeles Times reported on Wednesday.

Too many forces, from Bashar Assad’s government to Al Qaeda’s Syrian offshoot, don’t really want the cease-fire to last. And it’s not clear that anyone can stop them from blowing it up — least of all the Obama administration, which has sworn off military intervention on the ground.

The two great powers involved, the United States and Russia, both want a truce — but their basic goals are still far apart.

Kerry wants to push all sides into negotiations to set up a new Syrian government that would ease Assad out of power.

The Russians, who sent troops and planes to Syria last year to bolster Assad, mainly want to stabilize the government. 

Assad not only wants to keep power, but he also wants to use the cease-fire to improve his military and diplomatic positions. That’s what he did, with help from the Russians, during a brief cease-fire earlier this year.

Opposition leaders hope the truce will end the government’s siege of the rebel stronghold in Aleppo, Syria’s largest city, but they fear that the broader effect will be to weaken their forces and strengthen the government. 

Finally, Daesh and the Front for the Conquest of Syria have already rejected the truce and can be counted on to try to foil it — in part to avoid becoming the only remaining targets for airstrikes.

Source: MENA