Israeli researcher expects testing times for Jordan's King

Israel's former ambassador to Jordan and senior research associate at the Institute for National Security (INS) Dr. Oded Eran, expects Jordan's King Abdullah II is going to face, in the next few months, “the most complex and difficult test of power” since he inherited his the country's rule from his father 13 years ago. Eran wrote in his article that was published by the INS on Wednesday that the events in the three neighbours of Jordan, Iraq, Syria, and the West Bank,  would affect Jordan and its neighbours. “Jordan will be affected on both the domestic and border level,” he said. He explained: "At the domestic level the opposition will start to move, whether the Muslim Brotherhood or the tribes and the southern cities, which are at first loyal to the king." Eran also expected that the US troop’s withdrawal from Iraq would be followed by chaos, maximizing the refugee exodus from Iraq to Jordan. More than half a million Iraqis have fled to Jordan, eight years ago, and that contributed to the worsening economic crisis in Jordan. Moreover, he suggested that "the continued tensions between Shiites and Sunnis, will lead to confrontation even against Jordan’s will.” He continued saying that Syria’s uprising posed a new challenge to the regime in Jordan, as it raised Jordanian fears of becoming a "safe haven" for fugitives from the violence of current Syrian regime, as well as fears of turning Jordan later to a refuge for the Syrian Alawites, in case of a Sunni regime forming in Damascus. The Israeli researcher also added that changing the Syrian regime will lead to a break in the relationship between Damascus and Tehran, besides minimizing the relationships between some Jordanian groups stirring up trouble and the Syrian regime.   However, the fact that Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan is supporting the Syrian opposition, and their request from King Abdullah II to recognise the Syrian National Council “puts the king in an uncomfortable position,” as “the strengthening of cooperation between the Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan, and the Muslim Brotherhood in Syria, undoubtedly, raises concerns in the palace.” Eran turned to talk about the furious demonstrations that took place in main cities of Jordan following killing of a Jordanian man last week in Ramtha city after he was arrested on charges of helping Syrians to buy arms. The man  was killed in prison. Protests were also held against Jordanian living conditions, forcing the king to appoint Awn Al-Khasawneh as a prime minister to form a new government, in a move to regain popularity among the public. Eran believed that appointing Al-Khasawneh as a prime minister improves the relationship with the Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan, but, in his opinion, was not enough especially after the Muslim Brotherhood won elections in several Arabs country. The author also pointed out King Abdullah II'a concerns about the events in Palestine, referring to his recent visit to Ramallah after the internal Palestinian reconciliation. The visit reflected fears that the reconciliation would lead to a more active Hamas in the West Bank. He added that: "The rapprochement between Fatah and Hamas may put an end of Palestinian - Israeli negotiations, which is what concerns Jordan, because it could lead to a new round of violence between the Palestinians and Israel, and that will affect all parties, including Jordan.”