Russian finance ministry expects ruble’s exchange rate to weaken by 2031-2035

Russia’s Finance Ministry expects a gradual weakening of the ruble’s exchange rate to 73.9 rubles per dollar through 2036, according to the ‘Budget outlook through 2036’ released on the portal of the budget system on Saturday. The ministry also projects global oil prices stabilization in the range of $40-50 per barrel in the reporting period.

The Finance Ministry suggests that the exchange rate of the Russian currency is expected to be 66.4 rubles per dollar in 2021-2025, 71.1 rubles per dollar in 2026-2030, and 73.9 rubles per dollar in 2031-2035.

Moreover, oil prices are very likely to stabilize at the level of $40-45 per barrel in real terms over mid-long term, the ministry said. It expects the price of Urals crude oil to be $55.2 per barrel in 2021-2025, $52.2 per barrel in 2026-2030, and $54.9 per barrel in 2031-2035.

"The bulk of global oil supply sources, including the Russian Federation and the Middle East, have low hurdle rate (in the range of $10-30 per barrel). The US shale oil production is profitable with prices of around $35-50 per barrel. One should not ignore less efficient sources of production - deep-water offshore fields and Canada’s bituminous sands production - which have seen a reduction of threshold costs up to $50-60 per barrel over the past several years. Thus, there is no economic rationale for high oil prices to persist in the coming years," the document said.