IEA trims global oil demand growth forecast for 2014

While leaving its 2013 oil demand growth forecast broadly unchanged at 90.8 million barrels a day (mb/d) for 2013, the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Friday scaled back its projections for demand growth in 2014, due largely to less optimistic economic growth worldwide. In its monthly Oil Market Report (OMR), the Agency said that "lower macroeconomic forecasts" by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in July had led it to shave 100,000 b/d off demand from earlier estimates for 2014. Demand growth next year should be around 1.1 mb/d, bringing overall average demand to 92.0 mb/d, the IEA said. The global economy is expected to grow next year by around 3.8 percent compared with previous estimates of 4.0 percent. Meanwhile, global oil supply has been increasing but mainly from non-OPEC producers as some OPEC members have had difficulty with domestic, political and other situations, which put a brake on overall OPEC output, which fell 165, 000 b/d in July to 30.41 mb/d. Supply disruptions were mainly reported in Libya and Iraq, where violence and civil unrest have taken a toll on normal operations. At the same time, higher demand for crude this quarter has pushed up the "call on OPEC oil" by 200,000 b/d to 30 mb/d, with Saudi Arabia working to make up the difference. Overall crude supply last month rose to 91.85 mb/d, up 575,000 b/d from June, and with non-OPEC countries producing the total increase. Non-OPEC producers are expected to hike output to 55.4 mb/d by the fourth quarter of 2013, a rise of 1.4 mb/d over 2012 levels. The impact of US shale gas production is still being evaluated but it could have a significant impact on supply and energy use. OECD industry stocks increased a seasonal 11.9 million barrels in June, to 2.663 billion barrels, the IEA said.