IEA expects lower global oil demand for 2011/12

The International Energy Agency on Wednesday revised down global oil demand projection for 2011 and 2012, based on "lower-than-expected" third quarter readings in the non-OECD area and a downward global growth assumption. In its new oil market report, the Paris-based IEA put global oil demand down by 50,000 barrels per day (bpd) to an average of 89.2 million bpd for 2011, and down by 210,000 bpd to 90.5 million bpd for 2012. Year-on-year, the revised estimation increased by 1 million bpd and by 1.3 million bpd for 2011 and 2012 respectively. According to the IEA's latest projection, global growth in gross domestic product (GDP) will stand at 3.8 percent in 2011 and 3.9 percent in 2012, both down from the figures presented in September, with significant downside risks. Noting the decrease in global oil supply in September from the previous month, the IEA said the drop was a result of non-OPEC outages as well as less crude oil supply from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). For the fourth quarter of 2011, non-OPEC supply projections are trimmed by 0.3 million bpd, with 2011 supply averaged to 52.8 million bpd. For 2012, the non-OPEC supply is expected to reduce by 0.2 million bpd from last month's figure to 53.6 million bpd on average. The OPEC club on Tuesday cut its demand forecast for 2011 and 2012 for the third time in a row. For 2011, its estimate went down to 87.81 million bpd, and for 2012 89.01 million bpd, both below IEA projection. IEA estimated OPEC natural gas liquid output to average 5.9 million bpd in 2011 and 6.3 million bpd in 2012. But for crude oil, the report said the fourth quarter "call on OPEC crude and stock change" was adjusted up by 0.3 million bpd to 30.8 million bpd on lower non-OPEC supply, with the 2012 "call" unchanged at 30.5 million bpd.