Natural gas adoption will have a minimal effect on emissions

 Natural gas is abundant, cheap and burns cleaner than coal. But will a transition from coal to natural gas in the short term help reduce greenhouse gas emissions and slow global warming? A new study by scientists -- from the University of California, Irvine; Stanford University; and the nonprofit group Near Zero -- suggests the answer is no.
The researchers developed mathematical models that predicted U.S. energy consumption and emissions based on low levels of natural gas and high levels of natural gas. Though natural gas results in lower amounts of CO2 being released into the atmosphere, such benefits would be mostly mitigated by increased energy consumption.
Because natural gas is cheap and abundant, researchers predict its increased adoption would boost consumption of electricity and slow the necessary transition to cleaner energy sources, like wind and solar.
"In our results, abundant natural gas does not significantly lower greenhouse gas emissions," explained lead author Christine Shearer, an Earth science postdoctoral student at UC Irvine. "This is true even if no methane leaks during production and shipping."
The study was published this week in the journal Environmental Research Letters, the same week world leaders gathered in New York to discuss ways to curb emissions and slow climate change.
"Cutting greenhouse gas emissions by burning natural gas is like dieting by eating reduced-fat cookies," said researcher Steven Davis, assistant professor of Earth science at UC Irvine. "It may be better than eating full-fat cookies, but if you really want to lose weight, you probably need to avoid cookies altogether."